Super spreaders: part two

Why do so many people believe Covid-19 conspiracy theories (8 minute read)

Welcome to The Turnstone. Here, I share my perspective on science, society and the environment. I send my articles out every Sunday- if you’d like them emailed to you directly, you can sign up to my mailing list.

This article follows on from last week, where I look at where disinformation comes from.

Conspiracy theories are nothing new. Before the pandemic, we probably all knew people who believed in one or two, perhaps more. Perhaps we believed some ourselves – a 2019 study found that almost 70% of New Zealanders and 80% of Australians agreed with at least one conspiracy theory. Admittedly, that study used a broad definition of “conspiracy theory”, including one that the All Blacks were poisoned before their 1995 Rugby World Cup final against South Africa, which is hardly on the same scale as many of the Covid-19 conspiracy theories. But, whatever people believed, most of the time the beliefs probably seemed harmless.

Covid-19 has changed all that. Harmless, if strange, beliefs have taken a dangerous turn. If someone believes in Covid-19 conspiracy theories, there’s a good chance that they won’t be willing to wear a mask, scan when they visit a supermarket or get vaccinated. This doesn’t mean that everyone who is reluctant to get vaccinated believes in conspiracy theories – there are many reasons someone may worry about vaccination. But among those who are opposed to vaccines, conspiracy theories are disturbingly common. It’s now a matter of public, and personal, health.

How did it come to this? Last week, I talked about misinformation and disinformation, and how much of it comes from a limited range of sources – people selling vaccine “alternatives”, extremist groups and certain countries such as Russia and China. But that doesn’t explain how so many people – many of them apparently reasonable – end up being drawn in. And it doesn’t explain why conspiracy theories have been fracturing families and friendships up and down New Zealand, and around the world.

Before directing the blame towards social media, or the people believing and spreading conspiracy theories themselves, it’s worth taking a step back. We are living through a frightening period of history – a fast-moving global pandemic that has killed more than five million people. None of us has experienced anything quite like it before. And it isn’t just the virus itself that is new and frightening. Governments have responded by restricting individual freedoms in a way that would have been almost incomprehensible two years ago. These restrictions have saved many lives, but they’ve come at a cost. It’s understandable that people are unsettled, and have gone looking for answers.

The Covid-19 pandemic is far from being the first disease outbreak where people have looked to conspiracy theories. The Hoaxlines Disinformation Database has recorded disinformation associated with disease outbreaks from 1980 until today, and much of that disinformation relates to conspiracies. AIDS, according to one conspiracy theory, was created in a US government laboratory. SARS, according to another, was a global scam. Yet another suggested that the vaccine against H1N1 influenza in 2009 was part of the New World Order’s depopulation plan, while another linked global depopulation plans to the Ebola virus.

It’s understandable that people are being drawn to conspiracies at such a time as this, and perhaps it’s even reassuring that people believed conspiracy theories about previous disease outbreaks. But it doesn’t explain why people believe them.

Part of the blame for the spread of conspiracy theories must go to social media. YouTube, the video sharing platform, has come in for particular criticism. Until 2019, it had a well-documented tendency to recommend extremist or conspiratorial videos to people. Although it has since changed its recommendations, it is still directing users towards some conspiratorial videos. There is also a documented link between social media use and belief in conspiracies and misinformation. However, just because someone uses social media a lot and believes in conspiracy theories, it doesn’t mean that one causes the other. In fact, what research is suggesting is that the relationship between the time spent on social media and conspiracy beliefs holds true only if people are already predisposed to believe conspiracy theories.

To learn more about the people who are following Covid-19 conspiracy theories, I asked a few people who have friends and family with these beliefs. While it’s not a random sample or a research paper, the results did give a more human picture. More than anything, what I heard told me that those believing in conspiracy theories about Covid-19 are a diverse group. Some are older, some younger. Some have attitudes and perspectives that are unusual or alternative, but some do not. Some had discussed conspiracy theories with the friends and family members I spoke to, but some had not.

The Covid-19 conspiracy theories they believed were also diverse. Some were concerned about the link between 5G mobile technology and Covid-19. Others thought that the disease or the vaccine was part of plans for a “great reset” of the economy. Some were concerned about government mind control or “Big Pharma”. One thought that the Covid-19 vaccine was “the mark of the beast”. Most quoted the idea that the vaccine was still an experimental drug and that it was unsafe, but beyond that point, the conspiracy theories were not consistent.

Many of the ideas quoted would be frightening scenarios if they were true. It would be frightening if New Zealand was a dictatorship. It would be frightening if a global elite was trying to bring about the collapse of the human population. This atmosphere of fear is something that Stuff journalist Charlie Mitchell wrote about in his exploration of online communities where misinformation is shared. Although people believing conspiracy theories often say that the population is living in fear of Covid-19, it is the conspiracy-believers themselves who seem to be most afraid.

Fear has always been part of the picture in the anti-vaccine movement. Accounts from people who decided against vaccinating their children, such as the one I have linked to here, commonly mention the fear they felt as new parents. Later, once they understood that vaccinating their children wasn’t dangerous, they felt that the anti-vaccine movement exploited those fears. In a global pandemic, when people are understandably afraid, it’s easier than ever to exploit that fear.

Psychologists have identified three main motives for why people believe conspiracy theories. The first is the need to understand their environment, the second is the need to feel safe and in control and the third is the need to feel good about themselves. Conspiracy theories provide an explanation for events that people find confusing and upsetting, like a pandemic, but they also provide reassurance in other ways. They allow people to hold on to beliefs in the face of overwhelming evidence, protecting them from the need to change their mind – let’s face it, none of us likes to admit when we are wrong.

But there are paradoxes in the psychology of conspiracy thinking. While it allows people to feel good about themselves by connecting with others who share their beliefs, it can also be isolating. I spoke to a number of people who had reduced or ended contact with friends and family members who believed conspiracy theories. Another paradox is that while people may be drawn to conspiracy theories when they feel anxious or powerless, the evidence suggests that it doesn’t necessarily make people feel better. On the contrary, those who believe conspiracy theories often end up feeling more fearful and less in control, since they believe that the world is controlled by powerful and malevolent forces.

Part of what feeds the fear is the overwhelming amount of information. Described as a “firehose of falsehood” (a term first coined in 2016 to describe Russian propaganda), the misinformation comes thick and fast in the online conspiracy groups. Mitchell described the process in his article – the more anti-vaccination content he read on Facebook, the more appeared in front of him, because that’s what social media platforms do. They learn what we give our attention to, and give us more of it so that they can capture more of our attention. The firehose effect turned into a torrent when he joined other groups on different social media platforms. He was inundated with anti-vaccine and conspiracy-based misinformation – several posts every minute, day and night.

But not everyone who believes conspiracy theories ends up feeling afraid. Having access to “secret” knowledge can make people feel superior to those around them. One of the people I spoke to noted that some of the conspiracy thinkers she knew had a kind of arrogance. They were the kind of people who would proclaim confidently on topics they knew nothing about. This observation is also backed up by research, which indicates that a need to feel unique and stand out from others is associated with conspiracy beliefs.

There’s another factor that comes up when researchers look at people’s susceptibility to conspiracy beliefs – analytical thinking. A number of studies, for example this one from researchers at Duke University in North Carolina, have found that those who believe conspiracy theories are less likely to think analytically when solving problems. That’s a particular area of interest for me, because analytical thinking – and presenting the results of analytical thinking in a clear, logical way – has been at the core of my work for the last 15 years. One of the lessons I have learned from my work is that analytical thinking is a skill, not an innate ability. It can be improved with the right teaching and practice. And that’s what I will look at next week – the role of analytical thinking in protecting people from falling for misinformation and conspiracy theories, and what else might be done about the problem.

Let me know what you think in the comment box below. And if you know someone who might find this article interesting, please share it with them.