Where have all the vaccines gone?
Where have all the vaccines gone?
New Zealand seems to be at the back of the queue, but is that a bad thing?
On the radio, a couple of weeks back, I heard an extraordinary statistic about Covid-19 vaccines. Two thirds of the vaccine doses had been given in just three countries. That figure stuck in my mind, and made me wonder about what is happening with vaccine distribution around the world. I began asking questions about where the vaccines were going, who was getting vaccinated and with which vaccines?
The three countries which had given the largest number of vaccine doses weren’t named, but a bit of digging answered that question easily enough. In terms of absolute numbers, two large countries – the US and China – are neck and neck. The figures differ slightly depending on which source you look at, but the most recent data I’ve found has China just ahead, with 250 million doses, and the USA at not quite 240 million. The third country which has given a large number of vaccine doses is India, with nearly 150 million doses. These numbers are hardly surprising, as those three countries have the largest populations, and they all manufacture a lot of vaccines.
But other populous countries have not fared so well. The fourth most populous country is Indonesia, and it’s given not quite 20 million vaccine doses. Pakistan, fifth for population, has given barely two million doses. Brazil, number six in terms of population, is doing better, but less than 15% of its population has received at least one vaccine dose, and that’s a worrying figure given how bad Covid-19 has been there.
Of course, the absolute numbers tell only a small part of the story. More interesting are the doses given per person and the percentage of the population that are now vaccinated. In terms of doses administed per person, the country in the lead is Israel, followed closely by the United Arab Emirates. The United States and Britain are also high on the list, along with two countries you might not expect to see there – the Maldives and Chile. The Maldives have been badly affected by the pandemic, not so much by the disease – they rank around 60th per capita in the number of deaths – but by the lack of tourists. So far, around half of the population has been vaccinated, and they plan to offer vaccines to tourists once they have finished vaccinating residents.
Also high on the list of doses per person is Hungary, which has vaccinated people at twice the rate of other countries in the European Union. Most European Union countries are vaccinating at about the same rate, which is not surprising since they are working to a shared vaccination strategy. But Hungary has raced ahead. It has achieved this feat by approving seven different vaccines, including the Russian Sputnik-V and two different Chinese vaccines, rather than relying on the approval and purchase processes of the European Union.
The use of vaccines not approved by the European Union, especially the Sputnik-V vaccine, has caused controversy in a number of European countries. But for many countries, Russian and Chinese vaccines are the best option available. COVAX – the initiative aimed at distributing vaccines fairly – has been able to deliver 49 million doses so far. That’s not many when you’re trying to vaccinate populations in places like Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. Even some comparatively wealthy countries have looked to Russia and China for their vaccines.
Chile has relied almost entirely on the Chinese CoronaVac vaccine – without it very few Chileans would have been vaccinated at all. At first glance, this appears to have been a good decision – as you can see on the graph above, Chile’s vaccination rate is one of the best. There’s good news on the vaccine efficacy as well – although there have been some contradictory stories, data from Chile suggests that CoronaVac is around 80% effective at preventing hospitalisations and deaths from Covid-19, even if it’s less effective at preventing the infection entirely. However, a closer look shows some serious problems, not so much with the vaccine, but with the vaccination campaign. The Chinese vaccine is like most of the vaccines in use, requiring two doses to give protection . However, crucially, a single dose gives minimal protection. By mid-April, Chile had administered more than 12 million doses of the vaccine, but only about 4 million people had received the second dose.
Brazil has taken a different strategy, taking months to sign a contract with Pfizer/ BioNTech, arguing over CoronaVac and rejecting the Sputnik-V vaccine. While Russia’s lack of transparency means you may have some sympathy for the Braziian regulatory agency’s concern about the vaccine, it’s a questionable decision in a country which has just passed 400,000 recorded deaths. Local newspapers have used terms such as “lethal incompetence” and “homicidal negligence” to describe the actions of the country’s president in relation to the vaccination campaign (although, in my opinion, those terms could have been used with equal justification at any point in the last year).
But Brazil has actually vaccinated a higher proportion of its population than a number of other countries, New Zealand included. We are among the laggards when it comes to vaccination, along with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Australia. At first glance, this may seem like cause for criticism – why have we been so slow? But there’s something important about all the countries I’ve mentioned that sit beside us at the bottom of the vaccination table – they’re all Covid-19 success stories. Although there is some debate whether New Zealand's and Australia's slow vaccination rates are intentional or not, the fact is that New Zealanders aren’t dying of Covid-19 right now. Yes, it is urgent that we get our border workers vaccinated. Yes, it is important that we vaccinate our most vulnerable populations, in case we do get an outbreak. Yes, we should all get vaccinated so that our economy can once again benefit from tourism and seasonal workers, and so that we can travel. But, as far as I am concerned, people like me in countries like New Zealand, Australia and Taiwan should be at the back of the queue. I’m an advocate of vaccines, and I’ll be lining up when the time is right, but I don’t want to be vaccinated just yet.
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