A wonderful post Melanie! Your substack is a wonderful recent discovery. I think we sometimes observe this big beautiful world and see ourselves as a bit player. It is so easy (without any accompanying math) to remark our pollution is nothing compared to a big volcano for example. Of course it is not true but is an easy throwaway line for the contrarian aimed at uncertainty. Some of this creates confusion because it hides behind the avoidance of the rigor of math. How much math is too much? My sense is keep it simple and you did that with the wonderful metaphor of the cement mixer!!!
This sort of writing captures the scale of how humans disrupt an amazing but intricate system. We've left some aspects of the natural world alone but mostly we are now capable of overwhelming it. It sounds as if NZ, remaining thoughtful and intentional, still has the means to adjust and coexist with livestock. In the US, this process is even more distorted and challenging. About 97% of cattle are finished on feedlots, concentrating the challenges further. While the US was never big on lamb production, tastes have changed a bit a long with immigrant desire for lamb. In just a short time we've done the same to sheep that we did to cattle about 50 years ago -- about 65% of lamb is now also fed grain on feedlots before slaughter. In the US, NZ is synonymous with wonderful, high-quality lamb. Since I am still a relative newcomer to your stack, I look forward to catching up on the backlog. Best of luck in your explorations!
Thanks Mark. I'm glad the cement mixer unit of measurement worked.
As someone who has grown up eating traditional grass-fed beef, lamb and dairy products, and admiring the scenery of green pastures, I find the feedlot idea horrifying. But I'm also increasingly aware that our pasture systems are not good for the environment either and they have some animal welfare issues as well. I'm not someone who believes that everyone should go vegan, but I've come to the conclusion that we do need a major rethink about how we farm animals and in the quantity of animal products we consume.
I am a believer we are mostly at an analysis paralysis stage in our world. The scale and acceleration of many of our challenges are RADICALLY different than problems we might have wrestled with collectively in 1960 for example. Most of this is just the mathematical realities of exponential pressure. I worked in all sorts of control system applications through my career. While they were FUN because they were CHALLENGING, creating systems that work amidst exponential natural processes was hard, prone to errors, etal. The problems and challenges of these distortions are understood in the scientific community. It will be the job of great storytellers like yourself to translate the inevitable in a way that will lead to action. A lot has changed since 1960. I have a draft posting about cigarette consumption. It is a cautionary tale about what happens when you take on a problem that was growing exponentially. Even while we celebrate our 'success' the reality is not so nice. Your comment about veganism is instructive. Making people feel bad is the worst of instincts. Veganism is a first-world thing where folks have the luxury. I say this as a mostly plant-based eater for health reasons. If the topic emerges amongst my children's peers I tell them I'm not a vegan, I wear a belt and don't eat Oreos :) This was great writing. If I ever need to convert weights to concrete mixers I know who to ask now :)
Wow, great post Melanie. May I cross post it? It's very relevant to our situation here in Washington State
Sure John, you are welcome to.
A wonderful post Melanie! Your substack is a wonderful recent discovery. I think we sometimes observe this big beautiful world and see ourselves as a bit player. It is so easy (without any accompanying math) to remark our pollution is nothing compared to a big volcano for example. Of course it is not true but is an easy throwaway line for the contrarian aimed at uncertainty. Some of this creates confusion because it hides behind the avoidance of the rigor of math. How much math is too much? My sense is keep it simple and you did that with the wonderful metaphor of the cement mixer!!!
This sort of writing captures the scale of how humans disrupt an amazing but intricate system. We've left some aspects of the natural world alone but mostly we are now capable of overwhelming it. It sounds as if NZ, remaining thoughtful and intentional, still has the means to adjust and coexist with livestock. In the US, this process is even more distorted and challenging. About 97% of cattle are finished on feedlots, concentrating the challenges further. While the US was never big on lamb production, tastes have changed a bit a long with immigrant desire for lamb. In just a short time we've done the same to sheep that we did to cattle about 50 years ago -- about 65% of lamb is now also fed grain on feedlots before slaughter. In the US, NZ is synonymous with wonderful, high-quality lamb. Since I am still a relative newcomer to your stack, I look forward to catching up on the backlog. Best of luck in your explorations!
Thanks Mark. I'm glad the cement mixer unit of measurement worked.
As someone who has grown up eating traditional grass-fed beef, lamb and dairy products, and admiring the scenery of green pastures, I find the feedlot idea horrifying. But I'm also increasingly aware that our pasture systems are not good for the environment either and they have some animal welfare issues as well. I'm not someone who believes that everyone should go vegan, but I've come to the conclusion that we do need a major rethink about how we farm animals and in the quantity of animal products we consume.
I am a believer we are mostly at an analysis paralysis stage in our world. The scale and acceleration of many of our challenges are RADICALLY different than problems we might have wrestled with collectively in 1960 for example. Most of this is just the mathematical realities of exponential pressure. I worked in all sorts of control system applications through my career. While they were FUN because they were CHALLENGING, creating systems that work amidst exponential natural processes was hard, prone to errors, etal. The problems and challenges of these distortions are understood in the scientific community. It will be the job of great storytellers like yourself to translate the inevitable in a way that will lead to action. A lot has changed since 1960. I have a draft posting about cigarette consumption. It is a cautionary tale about what happens when you take on a problem that was growing exponentially. Even while we celebrate our 'success' the reality is not so nice. Your comment about veganism is instructive. Making people feel bad is the worst of instincts. Veganism is a first-world thing where folks have the luxury. I say this as a mostly plant-based eater for health reasons. If the topic emerges amongst my children's peers I tell them I'm not a vegan, I wear a belt and don't eat Oreos :) This was great writing. If I ever need to convert weights to concrete mixers I know who to ask now :)
Thanks so much Mark (and sorry for the delayed reply, my inbox got out of control). You're so right about analysis paralysis.
For those looking to go deeper on nitrogen, a full narrative history here:
https://apocalypse-confidential.com/2023/04/22/nitrogen/
Thanks, interesting link.