Hi Melanie; Great points! My issue as with all science that becomes political is the extremes that happen collectively usually from a backlash. Requiring healthy children to be vaccinated for Covid was wrong and extreme. And now we have an extreme backlash going in the other direction with no vaccines. Sigh.
Sorry for my delayed reply. Yes, it's really hard when things get polarised to the extremes. I'm not generally in favour of mandates, even if they increase vaccination rates in the short term for precisely that reason. Sadly, the response we had, even in New Zealand, was entirely predictable.
One of my FAVORITE classes I took as an undergraduate was simulation and game theory. I applied a lot of the simulation lessons later in my career but never much game theory. I worked for a scientific firm and a number of colleagues did game theory and I sometimes wished I had been able to participate. What I remember most about lunches with some of those colleagues was they would share the lesson that sometimes the result of analyzing complex multi-variable models was that uncertainty, strategically placed, can mean there are no good outcomes no matter what you do.
After reading your discourse about vaccines, I think conspiracy, mixed with human error and the accelerant of social media makes it likely there may be no good outcomes with vaccination in some circumstances. I have a cousin who went into the Peace Corp in the 1960s and served in India. He shared with me the challenge of trying to eradicate smallpox during his service. As crazy as it may seem, and despite the consequences with public opinion, it was only the MANDATORY IMPOSITION of vaccinations that ultimately led to the success of the eradication. Seems impossible to imagine in the modern age. So many of my fellow citizens nowadays give a voice to a legislator who speaks of Jewish space lasers. In some ways we are doomed by disinformation I fear.
Your mention of our HHS Secretary is almost uniamaginable. Former heroin addict against narcan. Roadkill eater who ended up with a brain worm. Vaccine conspiracist. Hard to imagine we have sunk to this level. When you hire a clown, expect a circus.
It's certainly a different world from when we eradicated smallpox. There's a very different view of medical ethics, and with good reason, but it does sometimes mean that actions with great collective benefit aren't going to happen.
I have great sympathy for people who fear vaccines, and even more sympathy for those who genuinely can't have certain vaccines (e.g. immune compromised people shouldn't have live vaccines, so depend on everyone else to get vaccinated to protect them). But I'm angry when the fear is the result of charlatans and war criminals (the situation with COVID involved both). And incredibly frustrated that people are falling for it.
I'm really feeling for people working in the sciences and public service in the US right now, and everyone really. It's awful. I have to limit my access to news because it's just too dire.
All is well for us. Thanks. A bit long here. I value your thoughtfulness and it is thought provoking so this is a bit long.
Humans have only been dallying with individual rights for a somewhat short period. I suppose the traditional left and right paradigm no longer applies. More of a continuum between the edge case left and right who probably now have the luxury of enough free time to read simplified and ultimately inaccurate 'how to think" about stuff on social media. Most of us are ill-informed and no easy answers. Even by the time we were less than 1B of us on the rock, challenges like smallpox rose to the intractable and perhaps existential threat to humanity. Most viruses flamed out over time due to low population density. That is no longer the case for larger and larger classes of viruses. Viruses ultimately threaten us meat sacs based on proximity. Mostly we are at the mercy of the exponential function that predicts spreadability and lethality. Most of us on the rock don't know what exponential probably means and very hard to make entertaining on Instagram & X where many get their information. Living close to each other is the fundamental threat. Hard policy to foresee. I also feel for those with vaccine hesitancy.
In my career, working with control systems, one of my favored memories wherein our teams were humbled. There are simply many things in our lives that have scientific predictability. Some things (like viruses) ultimately do not care about our feelings. There are a surprising number of problems that lack a predictable way to control. In industry these are mostly KILL SWITCHES for particularly exponential processes. With viruses mathematical spread prediction can be of the sort that they can threaten all of us. Carving out time for RFK Jr to share his nonsense only threatens the species in the long run. It is awesome to get everyone's hot takes but sometimes we will lack that luxury. Sometimes prioritizing everyone's take might endanger the human race.
A good current example is the crazy US policy to abandon USAID and its role as an early warning system for situations like Ebola. What is real and true is 200+ countries in the world have been UNWILLING to step up and work together and left much of the funding for such critical efforts largely to the US. A ranting populist has appealed to people's lesser angels to say 'we are getting ripped off'. The world, by accident, has managed to flourish during the unusual post ww2 wherein the US led on such policies in return for influence. It is not clear how they sorts of things will just happen. My guess is monumental misery is around the corner. I am sure countries on the sidelines will line up on social media and blame the US. The US reactionary policies will do damage and unleash misery. Methods for nations to share responsibility is our only hope. I hope some other places in the world ACTUALLY STEP UP rather than just lamenting the current dark policies America is experimenting with.
My, you’re good.
Hi Melanie; Great points! My issue as with all science that becomes political is the extremes that happen collectively usually from a backlash. Requiring healthy children to be vaccinated for Covid was wrong and extreme. And now we have an extreme backlash going in the other direction with no vaccines. Sigh.
Sorry for my delayed reply. Yes, it's really hard when things get polarised to the extremes. I'm not generally in favour of mandates, even if they increase vaccination rates in the short term for precisely that reason. Sadly, the response we had, even in New Zealand, was entirely predictable.
One of my FAVORITE classes I took as an undergraduate was simulation and game theory. I applied a lot of the simulation lessons later in my career but never much game theory. I worked for a scientific firm and a number of colleagues did game theory and I sometimes wished I had been able to participate. What I remember most about lunches with some of those colleagues was they would share the lesson that sometimes the result of analyzing complex multi-variable models was that uncertainty, strategically placed, can mean there are no good outcomes no matter what you do.
After reading your discourse about vaccines, I think conspiracy, mixed with human error and the accelerant of social media makes it likely there may be no good outcomes with vaccination in some circumstances. I have a cousin who went into the Peace Corp in the 1960s and served in India. He shared with me the challenge of trying to eradicate smallpox during his service. As crazy as it may seem, and despite the consequences with public opinion, it was only the MANDATORY IMPOSITION of vaccinations that ultimately led to the success of the eradication. Seems impossible to imagine in the modern age. So many of my fellow citizens nowadays give a voice to a legislator who speaks of Jewish space lasers. In some ways we are doomed by disinformation I fear.
Your mention of our HHS Secretary is almost uniamaginable. Former heroin addict against narcan. Roadkill eater who ended up with a brain worm. Vaccine conspiracist. Hard to imagine we have sunk to this level. When you hire a clown, expect a circus.
It's certainly a different world from when we eradicated smallpox. There's a very different view of medical ethics, and with good reason, but it does sometimes mean that actions with great collective benefit aren't going to happen.
I have great sympathy for people who fear vaccines, and even more sympathy for those who genuinely can't have certain vaccines (e.g. immune compromised people shouldn't have live vaccines, so depend on everyone else to get vaccinated to protect them). But I'm angry when the fear is the result of charlatans and war criminals (the situation with COVID involved both). And incredibly frustrated that people are falling for it.
I'm really feeling for people working in the sciences and public service in the US right now, and everyone really. It's awful. I have to limit my access to news because it's just too dire.
I hope you and your family are doing ok.
All is well for us. Thanks. A bit long here. I value your thoughtfulness and it is thought provoking so this is a bit long.
Humans have only been dallying with individual rights for a somewhat short period. I suppose the traditional left and right paradigm no longer applies. More of a continuum between the edge case left and right who probably now have the luxury of enough free time to read simplified and ultimately inaccurate 'how to think" about stuff on social media. Most of us are ill-informed and no easy answers. Even by the time we were less than 1B of us on the rock, challenges like smallpox rose to the intractable and perhaps existential threat to humanity. Most viruses flamed out over time due to low population density. That is no longer the case for larger and larger classes of viruses. Viruses ultimately threaten us meat sacs based on proximity. Mostly we are at the mercy of the exponential function that predicts spreadability and lethality. Most of us on the rock don't know what exponential probably means and very hard to make entertaining on Instagram & X where many get their information. Living close to each other is the fundamental threat. Hard policy to foresee. I also feel for those with vaccine hesitancy.
In my career, working with control systems, one of my favored memories wherein our teams were humbled. There are simply many things in our lives that have scientific predictability. Some things (like viruses) ultimately do not care about our feelings. There are a surprising number of problems that lack a predictable way to control. In industry these are mostly KILL SWITCHES for particularly exponential processes. With viruses mathematical spread prediction can be of the sort that they can threaten all of us. Carving out time for RFK Jr to share his nonsense only threatens the species in the long run. It is awesome to get everyone's hot takes but sometimes we will lack that luxury. Sometimes prioritizing everyone's take might endanger the human race.
A good current example is the crazy US policy to abandon USAID and its role as an early warning system for situations like Ebola. What is real and true is 200+ countries in the world have been UNWILLING to step up and work together and left much of the funding for such critical efforts largely to the US. A ranting populist has appealed to people's lesser angels to say 'we are getting ripped off'. The world, by accident, has managed to flourish during the unusual post ww2 wherein the US led on such policies in return for influence. It is not clear how they sorts of things will just happen. My guess is monumental misery is around the corner. I am sure countries on the sidelines will line up on social media and blame the US. The US reactionary policies will do damage and unleash misery. Methods for nations to share responsibility is our only hope. I hope some other places in the world ACTUALLY STEP UP rather than just lamenting the current dark policies America is experimenting with.